Home / Ideas / Volatility-Managed Sector Momentum

Sector & industry rotation · 2026-07-25

Volatility-Managed Sector Momentum

scale sector-momentum exposure inversely to its own realized volatility

expected Sharpe 0.7–1.1confidence: mediumfree daily data

Du Plessis & Hallerbach show volatility weighting improves the Sharpe of industry-portfolio momentum by both timing and stabilizing risk; Rothe's dynamic sector-rotation whitepaper combines momentum with a realized-vol risk overlay to cut drawdown versus the S&P 500 momentum index. Realized vol is computed straight from daily OHLCV, so it is fully free-data backtestable.

Universe

11 SPDR sector ETFs, with a cash proxy (BIL/SHY) absorbing the de-risked weight.

How it works

Monthly, select top-N sectors by 6–12 month momentum, then set each weight proportional to (target vol / trailing 20–60 day realized vol), capping gross exposure at 100% and holding cash for the remainder.

Expected performance

Research-derived Sharpe estimate: 0.7–1.1. .

Backtest this idea with SignalChain

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/signalchain Monthly sector-momentum rotation over 11 SPDR ETFs, size each holding inversely to its 40-day realized volatility, remainder in cash Get SignalChain — $49 →

Research & sources

Not financial advice. This page describes a research idea, not a recommendation. Any performance figures are hypothetical, research-derived estimates and are not indicative of future results. SignalChain is a research and educational tool; you are solely responsible for any decisions you make.